Fantasy #SCOTUS Update: The Post-Scalia Cases

April 5th, 2016

We last updated the FantasySCOTUS predictions on January 25, 2016–although only two months ago, it feels like a lifetime ago. Since then, we lost Justice Scalia, and the art of predicting Supreme Court cases has entered a new phase. Since March 1, the Court has decided 9 cases (we do not include the cases that split 4-4, because we do not know how the votes broke down–though we can certainly guess, such as in Friedrichs).

The Crowd and {Marshall}+ both predicted the outcome in Tyson Foods v. Bouaphakeo and Sturgeon v. Frost. The crowd additionally predicted Americold Rlty Trust v. ConAgra Foods, Evenwell v. Abbot, and Nichols v. U.S. Neither predicted Lockhart v. U.S., Gobeille v. Liberty Mutual, NEC v. Parker, and Luis v. U.S.


So far, after 24 decided cases, the Crowd has a 67% case accuracy rate and the algorithm has a 63% accuracy rate. Our expert crowd is surging at a 79% accuracy rate.


We are currently considering different means of representing the 4-4 affirm, as we will likely get many more this year than we have before.