FantasySCOTUS Update: Four Cases Decided on 1/25/16

January 25th, 2016

Today the Supreme Court decided four cases: Montgomery v. Louisiana (8th Amendment), Musacchio v. United States (Criminal Procedure), Menominee Tribe of Wis. v. United States (Civil Procedure), and FERC v. Electric Power Supply Assn. (Regulatory Law). The FantasySCOTUS crowd went 4-for-5, and the {Marshall}+ Algorithm went 5-for-5.


In Montgomery v. Alabama, both the crowd and algorithm predicted a reversal, but disagreed on the split.


Musacchio v. U.S. was a rare case that yielded a 9-0 affirm. The crowd nailed this. The algorithm got lucky by predicting a 5-4 affirm.



Menominee Indian Tribe of WI v. U.S. was another 9-0 affirm that the crowd got correctly. Interestingly, under the algorithm, the four votes to reverse were very weak (below 56%).


In FERC v. Elec. Pwr Supply Assoc., with Justice Alito recused, the vote split 6-2 to reverse. {Marshall}+ predicted a 8-0 reverse. FantasySCOTUS, interestingly, predicted a 4-4 affirm.