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Between 2009 and 2020, Josh published more than 10,000 blog posts. Here, you can access his blog archives.

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Robot, Esq. of the Future

September 23rd, 2013

Last week, I presented Robot, Esq. (updated version coming at the end of the month) at a GMU LEC Research Roundtable. This Roundtable offered several competing views of how what Larry Ribstein and Bruce Kobayashi refer to as Law’s Information Revolution will come into effect. I’ll have more on this later. In the interim, I’d like to flag a few recent articles that are on point.

First, Dean Frank Wu of U.C. Hastings posts at Above The Law, Resist the Robolawyer. Wu analogizes startups streamlining the delivery of legal services to Zipcars. He is troubled by this trend.

No doubt there is “commodity” work in legal practice. But even what might be reduced to routine still involves people’s lives. Between off-the-shelf legal forms and high-end bespoke opinion letters lies the range of human problems amenable to human remedies.

I will wager that, while we strive to introduce actual automation as well as scientific management (“Taylorism” for the aficionados) to law, the best lawyers will remain those who form meaningful relationships with clients. The most sophisticated matters demand not only judgment but also creativity, and the experts who possess those qualities do not wish to be treated as if they were a device for dispensing advice.

This is a point I raised at the workshop that is often lost amidst the shuffle. There are so many people working to make legal services available at a low cost, that quality is often lost behind–especially when legal work goes beyond commoditized, and must be customized. The answer I am usually given in return is that cheap legal services are better than no legal services at all. That is, the alternative to legal zoom is people going without a will, altogether. This is of course a fair point. But, my retort to that argument is that lawyers have an ethical duty to provide a certain level of services. Non-lawyer providers lack that ethical duty. When startups are providing services, not bound by any code of ethics, infused primarily by startup capital from non-lawyers, the risk to decreasing quality becomes prominent.

Second, a recent article in the ABA Journal Legal Rebels explains why venture capital firms are investing in legal startups that are not quite law firms:

U.S. lawyers know ABA Model Rule 5.4 prohibits them from sharing profits or forming partnerships with those who aren’t licensed to practice. In theory, this rule keeps the lawyering safely in the hands of the lawyers (and revenue from the practice of law safely ensconced at traditional law firms).

But does it really? And do outsiders looking to invest huge sums of money in the legal profession—in hopes of huge gains—even have their sights set on traditional law firm profits?

Not really. Instead, in the last five years we’ve seen nontraditional law firm Axiom Law negotiate M&A deals, alternative legal service provider Novus Law challenge the accuracy and efficiency of contract lawyers and BigLaw junior associates in trial prep, and hybrid company Clearspire create a model that allows a law firm and a business outsourcing company to work under the same umbrella. All three are disrupting the status quo of law practice, all three are taking work from traditional law firms, and all three are funded by nonlawyer investors.

At the workshop, many looked to the U.K., which as deregulated their legal services market as an example that the sky did not fall when non-lawyers were allowed to invest in law firms.

The U.K.’s legal services act of 2007 (which took five years to set up the necessary regulatory infrastructure) gave a green light for firms across the pond to take outside investment and combine with other professional services. And while closed-door discussions included big investors and bigger valuations among law firms, a lot of those deals never materialized.

The article also speaks of a law firm catching a client due to cool tech.

Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld is one firm that is using its partnership with Novus Law—which reviews, manages and analyzes documents for large-scale litigation—to woo and serve clients. Novus’ procedures and real-time portal allows the firm’s attorneys and clients to track the discovery process and drives “end-game thinking” early on in a matter, says Akin Gump senior counsel Ashley Vinson.

“We recently did a large competitive pitch under very tight time circumstances which we were successful in, and Novus was an arrow in that quiver,” Akin Gump litigation partner Shawn Hanson said. “Interestingly, the client, which was a relatively new opportunity for us, had already heard of Novus.”

Third, Will Baude (who has an endowed untenured chair!) discusses Tyler Cowen’s recent book, Average is Over. Will offers this excerpt about how the future economy will impact the practice of law:

Potential customers can ask their smart phones where a lawyer went to school, what her class rank was, and what kinds of promotions she has received. That information will be accompanied by an asterisk: “This information explains only 27 percent of lawyer performance.”

The better lawyers will open up their courtroom performances, their win-loss records, their contract analyses, and their written briefs to computer analyses for more accurate evaluations of professional quality. Siri will tell you: “This lawyer’s written briefs are in the top eighty-first percentile of his peer group; that explains thirty-eight percent of performance on a corporate deal.”

Many of the lesser lawyers will decline to be rated by a computer-human team at all, for fear of getting a bad rap and also because producing the rating will involve some cost. That will hurt their business prospects, especially with wealthier and better educated customers. . . .

It’s going to be a very different world when consumers feel so much on top, and in some ways it will be more dangerous because consumers do not always know what they are doing. . . . Once professionals are rated, their customers and clients might scorn them more often and be less likely to heed their advice. A client may wish to plead “not guilty” when an experienced lawyer recommends the guilty plea instead, or recommends a settlement out of court. The client will bark back to the lawyer, “Look, you’re not even in the top third of lawyers in Denver!” It will be harder for doctors and lawyers to “nudge” us and control us, because we will become more used to evaluating them, standing above them, and applying the programs to them in a manner that will make them feel small and will make many of us feel more powerful.

To this, I think Frank Wu would counter that it is impossible for a non-lawyer to understand and appreciate the value of a lawyer. Historically, the reason for our self-regulated profession was the understanding that lay-men can’t comprehend the value of a legal service, in the same way they can assess if a piece of fruit bought at a store, or maybe a paint job is good. The ethical duties are imposed to ensure that the clients are treated fairly. Cowen (and others) would counter that now technology that can actually assess how good a lawyer is, and even rank them!

I suspect this ranking will be a major blow to the legal profession, and result in massive lawsuits. Recently Yelp was sued for posting a negative lawyer review. Explaining what percentile a lawyer’s brief falls into will be open season for vexatious lawsuits by spurned attorneys.

Fourth, Richard Granat reports on the ABA’s new Report and Recommendations on the Future of Legal Education that suggests “‘limited licensing of non-lawyers (“legal technicians”) to deliver legal services to the public directly without the supervision of a lawyer.” 

“However, there is today, and there will increasingly be in the future, a need for: (a)persons who are qualified to provide limited law-related services without the oversight of a lawyer; (b) a system for licensing of individuals competent to provide such services; and (c) educational programs that train individuals to provide those limited services. The new system of training and licensing limited practice officers developed by Washington State and now being pursued by others is an example and a positive contribution.”

The report sets as a goal:

“Authorize Persons Other than Lawyers with J.D.’s to Provide Limited Legal Services, Whether Through Licensure Systems or Other Mechanisms Assuring Proper Education, Training, and Oversight.”

These quasi-lawyers may reach a happy medium–they could perform the “commoditized tasks” with some lower standard of ethical duty (better than the non-existent standard for Legal Zoom), while reserving the more subjective tasks for full-fledge lawyers. Washington State has already experimented with these provisions.

I’ll have more later. This post simply collects a number of recent thoughts on this topic.

“Quantitative Legal Prediction”

May 14th, 2013

My good friend and colleague Dan Katz has published a very important new article, titled “Quantitative Legal Prediction – or – How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Start Preparing for the Data Driven Future of the Legal Services Industry.”

Here is the abstract:

Do I Have a Case? What is Our Likely Exposure? How much is this Going to Cost? What will happen if we leave this particular provision out of this contract? How can we best staff this particular legal matter? These are core questions asked by sophisticated clients such as general counsels as well as consumers at the retail level. Whether generated by a mental model or a sophisticated algorithm, prediction is a core component of the guidance that lawyers offer. Indeed, it is by generating informed answers to these types of questions that many lawyers earn their respective wage.

Every single day lawyers and law firms are providing predictions to their clients regarding their prospects in litigation and the cost associated with its pursuit (defense). How are these predictions being generated? Precisely what data or model is being leveraged? Could a subset of these predictions be improved by access to outcome data in a large number of ‘similar’ cases. Simply put, the answer is yes. Quantitative legal prediction already plays a significant role in certain practice areas and this role is likely increase as greater access to appropriate legal data becomes available.

This article is dedicated to highlighting the coming age of Quantitative Legal Prediction with hopes that practicing lawyers, law students and law schools will take heed and prepare to survive (thrive) in this new ordering. Simply put, most lawyers, law schools and law students are going to have to do more to prepare for the data driven future of this industry. In other words, welcome to Law’s Information Revolution and yeah – there is going to be math on the exam.

Dan’s work dovetails very nicely with my work on assisted decision making, and follows in the bold footsteps of Larry Ribstein’s work. Dan and I tend to be something of a travelling road show, and I’ve seen him present this paper a number of times.

Intrade Shuts Down Access to Americans. FantasySCOTUS Is Still Open For Business

November 26th, 2012

Buzzfeed reports that Intrade has been sued by the Commodities Future Trading Commission for “allegedly allowing illegal trading in gold and other commodities it regulates.” Intrade, based in Ireland, has cut off access to all American customers.

From Intrade’s release:

We are sorry to announce that due to legal and regulatory pressures, Intrade can no longer allow US residents to participate in our real-money prediction markets.

Unfortunately this means that all US residents must begin the process of closing down their Intrade accounts. We strongly urge you to begin this process immediately: . . .

We understand this announcement may come as a surprise and a disappointment, and we apologize for the short notice and haste required to deal with this. We would like to sincerely thank all US customers for their custom, support and loyalty over the years.

For some time, I have wondered about InTrade’s legality. Based in Ireland, they operated in something of a jurisdictional flux.

The North American Derivatives Exchange approached the CFTC about creating a prediction market, but the CFTC prohibited it earlier this year. It looks like they are cracking down on all prediction markets.

Looks like there is now only one market for Supreme Court predictions–FantasySCOTUS.net. Though, no money is transferred anywhere on FantasySCOTUS. It is just for fun.

Asides from the CFTC, I am fairly sure that prediction markets for political events do not violate gambling and wiretap laws.

And, for what it’s worth, our predictions were far more accurate than Intrade’s.

Update: Alex Tabarrok links to the CFTC’s press release. This seems really serious.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) today filed a civil complaint in federal district court in Washington, DC, charging Intrade The Prediction Market Limited (Intrade) and Trade Exchange Network Limited(TEN), Irish companies based in Dublin, Ireland, with offering commodity option contracts to U.S. customers for trading, as well as soliciting, accepting, and confirming the execution of orders from U.S. customers, all in violation of the CFTC’s ban on off-exchange options trading.

Intrade and TEN jointly operate an online “prediction market” trading website, through which customers buy or sell binary options which allow them to predict (“yes” or “no”) whether a specific future event will occur, according to the CFTC’s complaint.

Specifically, according to the complaint, from September 2007 to June 25, 2012, Intrade and TEN operated an online “prediction market” trading website, which allowed U.S. customers to trade options products prohibited by the CFTC’s ban on off-exchange options trading. Through the website, Intrade and TEN allegedly unlawfully solicited and permitted U.S. customers to buy and sell options predicting whether specific future events would occur, including whether certain U.S. economic numbers or the prices of gold and currencies would reach a certain level by a certain future date, and whether specific acts of war would occur by a certain future date. [JB: and the outcome of Supreme Court cases]

…David Meister, the Director of the CFTC’s Division of Enforcement, stated: “It is against the law to solicit U.S. persons to buy and sell commodity options, even if they are called ‘prediction’ contracts, unless they are listed for trading and traded on a CFTC-registered exchange or unless legally exempt. The requirement for on-exchange trading is important for a number of reasons, including that it enables the CFTC to police market activity and protect market integrity. Today’s action should make it clear that we will intervene in the ‘prediction’ markets, wherever they may be based, when their U.S. activities violate the Commodity Exchange Act or the CFTC’s regulations.”

In its continuing litigation the CFTC seeks civil monetary penalties, disgorgement of ill-gotten gains, and permanent injunctions against further violations of federal commodities law, as charged, among other relief.

The CFTC acknowledges the Central Bank of Ireland for its assistance in the CFTC’s investigation of Intrade and TEN.

Update: John Stossel weighs in:

Why did the American government sue Intrade? It was not for operating an online gambling operation, but for allegedly violating America’s incomprehensible financial regulations — specifically, these ones:

“Section 4c(b) and 9(a)(3) of the [Commodity Exchange] Act, §§6c(b) and 13(a)(3) (2006); Section 2(e) of the Act, as amended by the Dodd-Frank Act, to be codified at 7 U.S.C. § 2(e); and Regulation 32, as amended, to be codified at 17 C.F.R. § 32 (2011);”

In English: the government says that many of the things Intrade allows people to predict – everything from what the price of gold will be in the future to whether the U.S. will go to war soon – are legally considered “commodity options,” and that Intrade broke the law because it isn’t licensed to trade those. The penalty is $140,000 per violation.

In a press release, the CFTC’s chief enforcer went out of his way to target “prediction markets”:

“It is against the law to solicit U.S. persons to buy and sell commodity options, even if they are called ‘prediction’ contracts, unless they are… traded on a CFTC-registered exchange… Today’s action should make it clear that we will intervene in the ‘prediction’ markets, wherever they may be based.”

Why doesn’t Intrade just obey the complicated law and become a licensed exchange? They tried, but the CFTC won’t give them a license. When an established, licensed U.S. commodity exchange applied for permission to do what Intrade does, the CFTC turned them down, too.

The pompous CFTC enforcer claims that the regulation “is important for a number of reasons, including that it enables the CFTC to police market activity.”

Please. These regulations don’t help police market activity. When people make money on Intrade, Intrade sends them the money. There are no allegations of fraud. Customers are happy with Intrade, judging by increased activity on the site (over $50 million was bet about whether Obama or Romney would win.)

The market polices itself.

Update: Brian Caplan wants a 1st Amendment challenge for prediction markets.

[tweet https://twitter.com/bryan_caplan/status/273264205501718529]

More from Caplan here:

The CFTC’s real complaint is that consumers eagerly bet on Intrade because the company exemplifies market integrity: “I trust Intrade with my money because of their reputation, not government regulation.”  Reputation: That’s the same mechanism, of course, that underlies eBay, Amazon Marketplace, and the whole cornucopia of internet commerce that the mainstream information economist of 1990 would have dismissed as free-market Fantasy Island.

If the CFTC really wants to protect market integrity, it should start by publicly admitting that if the CFTC ever served a useful function, that time has long since passed.  Americans send money to Intrade because Intrade delivers the goods (and produces the positive externality of accurate forecasts in the process!).

In the information age, firms’ reputations are just a click away.  That’s all the protection any consumer needs.  The only people the CFTC is “protecting” are their own obsolete employees.

This is something I have in mind for the future. Unsurprisingly, Larry Ribstein wrote about this 18 months ago.

My Article Dedications

January 28th, 2012

I have dedicated all of my law review articles to dead people I admire.

  1. The Constitutionality of Social Cost, 34 Harvard Journal of Law & Public Policy 1 (2011) SSRN Ronald Coase
  2. Original Citizenship159 University of Pennsylvania Law Review PENNUMBRA 95 (2010), SSRN James Wilson
  3. Crowdsourcing A Prediction Market for the Supreme Court, 10 Northwestern Journal of Technology & Intellectual Property ___ (2012)  SSRN F.A. Hayek and Larry Ribstein (dearly departed)
  4. Pierson v. Post and The Natural Law, 51 American Journal of Legal History 95 (2011). SSRN John Locke
  5. Keeping Pandora’s Box Sealed, 8 Georgetown Journal of Law & Public Policy (2010) (With Ilya Shapiro). SSRN The 39th Congress
  6. Equal Protection from Eminent Domain, 56 Loyola Law Review 697 (2010). SSRN George Mason
  7. Youngstown’s Fourth Tier. Is There A Zone of Insight Beyond the Zone of Twilight?, 40 Memphis Law Review 541 (2010) (With Elizabeth Bahr). SSRN George Washington
  8. The Tell-Tale Privileges or Immunities Clause2010 Cato Supreme Court Review 163 (2010) (With Alan Gura and Ilya Shapiro). SSRN John Bingham
  9. This Lemon Comes as a Lemon. The Lemon Test and the Pursuit of a Statute’s Secular Purpose, 20 George Mason University Civil Rights Law Review  351 (2010). SSRN Thomas Jefferson
  10. Omniveillance, Google, Privacy in Public, and the Right to Your Digital Identity: A Tort for Recording and Disseminating an Individual’s Image Over the Internet, 49 Santa Clara Law Review 313 (2009). SSRN James Madison

And who will I dedicate this article to?

The Supreme Court’s New Battlefield, 90 Texas Law Review ___  (2012). Drumroll…. Frederick Douglass! This is probably the last thing I will write (for a while at least) about Reconstruction, so this seemed like a good opportunity. After all, I double-tipped Bingham, thanking him personally, and as a member of the august 39th Congress.

FantasySCOTUS: Crowdsourcing a Prediction Market for the Supreme Court

January 6th, 2012

I am proud to announce that FantasySCOTUS: Crowdsourcing a Prediction Market for the Supreme Court has been published in the Northwestern Journal of Technology and Intellectual Property.

Many thanks to my esteemed co-authors, Corey Carpenter and Adam Aft for making this project happen.

Further, I would like to highlight our acknowledgments section. I have dedicated all of my articles to legal minds whom I deeply respect (Madison, Jefferson, Blackstone, among others).

We had originally intended to dedicate the article to F. A. Hayek because of his prescient work on the price system that really set the foundation for prediction markets. However, after the tragic passing of Larry Ribstein (whom I was supposed to meet today at the AALS Conference), we added Larry to the acknowledgments section. I can think of no bigger tribute to Larry than to include him in the same company as Freddy Hayek. I just got the image in my head of Larry boxing with Keynes in heaven, and it made me smile. This is for you Larry!

Here is the abstract:

Every year the Supreme Court of the United States captivates the minds and curiosity of millions of Americans — yet the inner-workings of the Court are not fully transparent. The Court, without explanation, decides only the cases it wishes. They deliberate and assign authorship in private. The Justices hear oral arguments, and without notice, issue an opinion months later. They sometimes offer enigmatic clues during oral arguments through their questions. Between arguments and the day the Court issues an opinion, the outcome of a case is essentially a mystery. Sometimes the outcome falls along predictable lines; other times the outcome is a complete surprise.

Court watchers frequently make predictions about the cases in articles, on blogs, and elsewhere. Individually, some may be right, some may be wrong. Until recently, there was not a way to pool together this collective wisdom, and aggregate ex ante predictions for all cases pending before the United States Supreme Court.

Now there is such a tool. FantasySCOTUS.net from the Harlan Institute is the Internet’s premier Supreme Court Fantasy League, and the first crowdsourced prediction market for jurisprudential speculation. During the October 2009 Supreme Court Term, over 5,000 members made more than 11,000 predictions for all eighty-one cases decided. Based on these data, FantasySCOTUS correctly predicted the outcome in more than fifty percent of the cases decided, and the top-ranked predictors forecasted seventy-five percent of the cases correctly. This essay explores the wisdom of the crowds in this prediction market and assesses the accuracy of FantasySCOTUS.

FantasySCOTUS is only two years old, but the implications and applications of this information market are intriguing. This article considers the possible future of FantasySCOTUS. First, from a jurisprudential perspective, FantasySCOTUS illuminates public perceptions of how the Supreme Court works as an institution. Specifically, it serves as a comprehensive polling device to provide an honest, albeit unscientific, survey that reflects how a large sample size of Court watchers view the Justices and their legal realist ideological proclivities, particularly in 5–4 decisions. If FantasySCOTUS can accurately reduce each of the Justices to nothing more than a conservative, or liberal vote, that may have broader implications to the rule of law, and objective, detached standards of judging.

From a practical perspective, with more accurate future versions of FantasySCOTUS, attorneys will be able to rely on this program to assist them with litigation decisions involving cases pending before the Supreme Court. As our understanding of judicial behavior improves — perhaps through scanning all filings in PACER (Public Access to Court Electronic Records) — and the program can shift from a pure crowdsourcing technique to a commoditized super cruncher information service, a prediction engine can be created for lower courts. An interactive litigation assistant — think of the iPhone’s Siri application — could allow attorneys and laymen alike to instantly understand and grasp the law in any given area by simply asking questions. Such technology would be of great value for practicing attorneys, and provide access to justice to people who cannot afford lawyers. This is the promise of law’s information revolution, of which we hope FantasySCOTUS is but a first step to the future.