SCOTUS Prediction Article Featured in Science Magazine

May 3rd, 2017

Predicting the Behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States: A General Approach, which I coauthored with Daniel Martin Katz & Michael James Bommarito II in PLOS One, was featured in Science Magazine. The piece interviews two of the leading scholars of prediction markets:

Roger Guimerà, a physicist at Rovira i Virgili University in Tarragona, Spain, and lead author of the 2011 study, says the new algorithm “is rigorous and well done.” Andrew Martin, a political scientist at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor and an author of the 2004 study, commends the new team for producing an algorithm that works well over 2 centuries. “They’re curating really large data sets and using state-of-the-art methods,” he says. “That’s scientifically really important.”

Dan, Mike, and I have spent several years working on this project, and we are honored with this recognition.