At the ACADeathSpiral Blog, Professor Seth Chandler poses five questions that should be asked about the enrollment data from HealthCare.gov.
1. What is the distribution of enrollment among the various metal tiers?
2. What is the income distribution of those purchasing policies on the Exchanges? Is the ACA turning into welfare for the wealthy?
3. What is the distribution of enrollment by price ranking among the various plans?
4. What is enrollment in the SHOP Exchanges?
5. Are insurers in fact “uncanceling” policies where they have been permitted to do so and is anyone buying them?
All of these questions will shed light on whether we are moving towards an adverse selection death spiral.