When people wanted to know what the Supreme Court would do, I built FantasySCOTUS. When people wanted to know who the next Pope would be, I built FantasyPope.

What will the next fiefdom be in my Fantasy Empire? The market closest to home–FantasyProf.com

Though I personally do not check the so-called Angsting Thread, I find that many colleagues read it religiously (amidst bouts of depression, exasperation, and exuberance). At its heart, the Angsting Thread is a market for information, though it is quite inefficient, and does not offer any easy way to figure out the status of placements at different journals.

A prediction market could solve these information problems. Instead of posting the information to the comment threads, FantasyProf.com will ask for several pieces of information. First, journals can post the dates on which they are accepting submissions. Second, authors can submit when they submitted, when they received a decline or offer from a particular journal, and when they finally accepted an offer. Submissions would be made anonymously, but would require a .edu address.  I’m pretty sure that this market could be used to aggregate enough statistics, that when combined with ultimate placements, can predict placements.

Likewise, the spreadsheet maintained to document hiring on the AALS is helpful, but difficult to follow. A similar market on FantasyProf. where schools can announce their hiring intentions online, and candidates can post when they receive offers to interview at the AALS, callbacks, offers, as well as dings along the process. Gathering historical trends about this data would be extremely valuable.

[JB Update: On further reflection, I realized I typed too hastily. The AALS hiring spreadsheets are quite helpful. I will hold off on any work in this field. My apologies. I also updated the title.]

I have no idea when I’ll build this site, but maybe I can get it ready for the August 2013 submission cycle. I already purchased the domain.

H/T Jessica for the idea.