Is “Big Data” A Bubble?

October 29th, 2011

This article argues that the focus on collecting and agreggating data may not be quite as valuable as we think it is today:

Often people won’t know exactly what hidden pattern they are looking for, or what the value they extract may be, and therefore it will be impossible to know how much to invest in the technology. Odds are that the initial benefits, as it was with Google’s Adwords algorithm, will lead to a frenzy of investments and marketing pitches, until we find the logical limits of the technology. It will be the place just before everybody lost their shirts.

This is a common characteristic of technology that its champions do not like to talk about, but it is why we have so many bubbles in this industry. Technologists build or discover something great, like railroads or radio or the Internet. The change is so important, often world-changing, that it is hard to value, so people overshoot toward the infinite. When it turns out to be merely huge, there is a crash, in railroad bonds, or RCA stock, or Perhaps Big Data is next, on its way to changing the world.