FantasySCOTUS Predictions for the Final 14 Cases

June 19th, 2011

The end of the October 2010 Supreme Court Term is almost here. Here are the FantasySCOTUS Prediction Tracker picks for the remaining 14 cases. I divided the cases into two categories: first, the cases where we are virtually certainty of the outcome (at a 99% confidence level); second, the cases where we are not certain of the outcome. If you are interested in learning more about FantasySCOTUS as a prediction market, please take a look at an essay I co-authored. I will compare these predictions to Tom Goldstein’s predictions at SCOTUSBlog in tomorrow’s Supreme Court Insider.


FantasySCOTUS Certainty
Brown v. EMA Affirm Yes at 99% (83%+/-4.52)
Wal-Mart v. Dukes Reverse Yes at 99% (75%+/-12.3)
Az Free Enterprise/McComish v. Bennett Reverse Yes at 99% (72%+/-14)
CSX v. McBride Affirm Yes at 99% (85%+/-17.3)
Sorrell v. IMS Affirm Yes at 99% (77%+/-18.3)
Am. Elec. Power Co. v. Conn. Reverse Yes at 99% (70%+/-18.4)
Goodyear v. Brown Reverse Yes at 99% (66%+/-12.1)

Not Confident

FantasySCOTUS Certainty
Stern v. Marshall Affirm No (52% +/-12.1 for 90%)
Freeman v. US Reverse No (52%+/-11.6 for 90%)
Duryea v. Guarnieri Affirm No (53%+/-14 for 90%)
Turner v. Rogers Reverse No (56%+/-14 for 90%)
Bullcoming v. New Mexico Reverse No (57%+/-9.53 for 90%)
McIntyre v. Nicastro Affirm No (55%+/-8.35 for 90%)