Revisiting my predictions for 2010

December 29th, 2010

On December 31, 2009 I made 10 predictions for 2010. Seeing that hindsight is 20/20, let’s see how I did.

Prediction No. 1: Justice Stevens retires at the end of the term, and President Obama appoints Elena Kagan to replace him. She gets confirmed, easily. I am currently hedging this bet, and writing an article about Kagan as the next Justice. If I’m correct, look for this article to go on SSRN the day BHO announces her as the nominee. And I will expect some media phone calls at that point.

Bam. Nailed this one on the head. I actually did start writing the article I mentioned, but stopped when I realized the ridiculous amount of coverage it was receiving in the blogosphere. It would have been dated by the time it was published.

Prediction No. 2: The Republicans do well in 2010, but not well enough to obtain a majority in either house. Though, the Dems no longer have 60, and can’t Rahm stuff through as easily.

Got this one mostly right, though the GOP did take the house.

Prediction No. 3: The Democrats pass some watered down climate bill, but not full-blown cap and trade. Like the watered down version of health care that annoyed the left, this will cause BHO to lose even more political capital from his base.

Wrong on this count.

Prediction No. 4: Constitutional challenges to the Individual Health Care Mandate fail, and SCOTUS denies Cert (this may take longer than 1 year, but the Justices are not touching this with a 10 foot pole).

Wrong on this one. Amazing how much changed in one year.

Prediction No. 5: Chicago’s gun ban in McDonald v. Chicago is struck down 5-4. In a concurring opinion, Justice Thomas proposes Privileges or Immunities as an alternative route to incorporation, and he cites Pandora (wishful thinking). In the dissenting opinions, the liberal Justices discuss Privileges or Immunities, and mention the possibility that it can be used to protect certain rights, but it does not protect the right to keep and bear arms. Either way, Slaughter-House is slaughtered. Statism FTL! Gura FTW!

Got this one mostly right. Nailed the split and the Thomas concurrence. Sadly, no citation to Pandora. The dissenting Justices also punted on P or I.

Prediction No. 6: In Citizens United, the Supreme Court reverses the D.C. Circuit 5-4, but leaves most of BCRA untouched.

Got this one mostly right. Citizens was 5-4, and most of BCRA is untouched–for now.

Prediction No. 7: for OT2010 will be free for all, and hit 10,000 members, and I attract a very impressive sponsor (stay tuned).

FantasySCOTUS is indeed free for all, and we are now sponsored by West! Still short of 10,000 members, but we’re getting there.

Prediction No. 8: Penn State will win 11 games and go to a BCS Bowl. Joe Paterno will return for another year.  Rutgers joins the Big Ten. The New York Yankees repeat as 2010 World Champions. The Boston Red Sox lose to the Yankees in the ALCS in 5 games.

I really blew this one. Penn State won 7 games, and has a chance at winning #8 against Florida in the Outback Bowl on January 1. While Rutgers did not join the Big Ten, Nebraska (who also has a red uniform) did join the Conference. Sadly the Yankees did not win the World Series, but the RED SOX DID NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS!

Prediction No. 9: Following the Yankee Win, Ilya Somin writes a bitter post on Volokh about subsidies for the New Yankee Stadium, and uses the phrase “Evil Empire” no less than 3 times during the playoffs. BTW, not really a prediction, but the Somin-Schmauch wedding will be the libertarian nerd nirvana event of the Season. And to round out my Ilya predictions, Ilya Somin will beat Ilya Shapiro, and reclaim the title in the Battle of the Ilyas.

While the Yankees did not win the Series, Ilya Somin continues to lambaste the new Yankee Stadium. The Somin-Schmauch wedding was indeed the “libertarian nerd nirvana event of the Season.” What an awesome wedding. Alas, Ilya Shapiro beat Ilya Somin to continue his reign as champion of the 2010 Battle of the Ilyas.

Prediction No. 10: Someone will hack Google, releasing all of our personal information, and we will all be really, really screwed.

Google was not hacked. Gawker was hacked and that released a number of passwords. Also, we had massive dowtime for Twitter, Facebook, Gmail, Tumbler and other services. Not cool.

General Prediction about the Harlan Institute: 2010 will be a good year for the Harlan Institute for Constitutional Studies. I am working closely with my board, teachers, and constitutional law experts, to develop interactive web 2.0 technology to teach students about the Constitution and the Supreme Court. My aim is to have all of the features available for teachers to evaluate this Summer. Everything will be free for teachers, so I will be seeking non-profit status, and looking for grants. I already have some bites, but let me know if you you have any leads.

Nailed it. We are now the fastest growing constitutional literacy program in the country. In a little over two months we already have 1,000 students playing FantasySCOTUS! Please consider making a tax-exempt donation to our worthy cause.

Seeing that my predictions were rather lousy, I should probably avoid making predictions for 2011. Eh, I’ll probably make them anyway. Predictions to come.