LegalTimes Relies on Data to Explain Delay in Citizens United

December 14th, 2009

While Justice Breyer won’t bet on, Tony Mauro, the Supreme Court Correspondent at the Blog of the Legal Times will.

This morning Tony e-mailed me and asked if the data from could help explain the delay in Citizens United v. FEC (Hillary Movie Case). I sent him a link to the Predictions of the 10th justice and explained the data from votes on Citizens United.

Glad to see my predictions made it into BLT and

Which justice might be the lost vote? Elwood won’t say, but the betting crowd has a likely answer: Justice Anthony Kennedy, who has been known to agonize for extended periods from his position as swing vote. At, which bills itself as the premier Supreme Court fantasy league, 90 per cent of the members put Kennedy in the majority in Citizens United, which founder Josh Blackman interprets to mean that Kennedy is either “a persuasive bellwether for this case or holds out to decide split votes.”

Cool. Very cool. I’m quoted in the same article as John Elwood of Volokh Conspiracy fame and Jan Baran of Wiley Rein.

I’ve also been chatting with a prominent economist at a famous economics blog about potentially using the data for some pretty cool things. Stay tuned.