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Welcome to the first installment of Predictions of the  10^th Justice, brought to you by FantasySCOTUS.net. FantasySCOTUS.net, the Premier Supreme Court Fantasy League, has over 1,300 members, who have made predictions on all cases currently pending before the Supreme Court. In this feature, we analyze these predictions, and try to explain how the Supreme Court will resolve top cases.

The first case we will look at is Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, commonly known as the Hillary Movie case.

Out of 286 predictions, 192 members (67%) held that the Supreme Court will likely reverse the lower court’s decision regarding the case, and 94 members  (33%) held that the Court will affirm the lower court’s decisions. Next we will explore how the decision vote distributions and how the Justices will vote.

On this bar graph, the 9-0 and 8-1 Affirm splits each garnered less than 5 votes, along with 7-2, 8-1, and 9-0 Reverse. This graph reinforces the predicted outcome from the first chart.  Most members are predicting a 5-4 Reverse, while those predicting an Affirm were more moderately split,  slightly favored a 5-4 splitover a 6-3 split. Overall, the 10^th Justice predicts a 5-4 decision reversing the lower courts holding.

But how will each Justice vote? Predictions, after the jump.

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Barbara K. Olson Memorial Lecture
Friday, Nov. 13
5:15 p.m. – 5:45 p.m.
Grand Ballroom

– Hon. Douglas H. Ginsburg, U.S. Court of Appeals, D.C. Circuit

Address
4:30 p.m. – 5:30 p.m.
State Room

• Mr. Mark R. Levin, President, Landmark Legal Foundation and Author of Liberty and Tyranny: A Conservative Manifesto

Introduction by Leonard Leo

The Federalist Society is so great the libs made up their own society. What’s it called? The American what?

The key to America’s greatness is the civil society, recognizes individual as unique social order.

The Civil Society hjas a cultural identity of traditions and customs. In the civil society private property and liberty are inseparable.

Property is manifestation of individual’s labor. Just and predictable rule of law undergirds civil society.

Modern liberal is not liberal at all. Classical liberal is opposite of authortarian. Modern liberal is a statist. He promotes a soft tyranny. A statist is at war with the Civil Society. They reject the Declaration of Independence.

Stop giving statists the benefits of the doubt.

Langauge most pernicious tool of the statistis.

Lincoln- “We all proclaim liberty. But we don’ t all mean the same thing.”

And I stopped blogging here. This was an overtly political speech, and was not appropriate for a Federalist Society event. I heard many grumblings in the reception following. I took some video, but not worth the time to publish and post it.

Corporations: Delaware’s New Competition: The Creeping Federalization of American Corporate Law
Saturday, Nov. 14
10:45 a.m. – 12:15 p.m.
State Room

• Prof. Stephen M. Bainbridge, William D. Warren Professor of Law, University of California, Los Angeles School of Law
• Mr. Cornish F. Hitchcock, Hitchcock Law Firm PLLC
• Mr. David A. Katz, Partner, Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz
• Prof. Roberta Romano, Oscar M. Ruebhausen Professor of Law and Director, Yale Law School Center for the Study of Corporate Law
• Moderator: Hon. Thomas M. Hardiman, U.S. Court of Appeals, Third Circuit

Corporations: Delaware’s New Competition: The Creeping Federalization of American Corporate Law

Saturday, Nov. 14 – Hayes Edwards and Joel G. Miller

10:45 a.m. – 12:15 p.m.

State Room

Moderator: Hon. Thomas M. Hardiman, U.S. Court of Appeals, Third Circuit

Prof. Stephen M. Bainbridge, University of California, Los Angeles School of Law

For last 200 yrs in US, corporations have been subject to state governance

Incorporation in one state does not preclude from doing business in another state

This results in competitive federalism, there is competition to attract the most number of corporations

Many regard this as a race to the bottom, by offering managers laws to enrich themselves at expense of investors

Others suggest the race is to minimize needed capital

Others deny that there is a race at all

Delaware has attracted many corporations

Delaware faces a new competitor in the federal government

Corporate governance remained in state control until 2002

Federal control and regulation has increased under Obama Admin

Substantial possibility that there will be permanent federal intrusion into corporate governance

The issues in play, then, are:

1 Say on pay

2 Shareholder access and ability to nominate directors

3 Mandates for majority voting

4 Creation of non-executive chairmen

5 Classified boards of directors

6 Compensation

Bottom line is the environment of horizontal competition between states is being replaced by vertical competition, primarily between the federal government and Delaware

As Fed more willing to intrude in this way, are we more likely to see more efficienct rules or less efficient rules that allow less free for companies

More after the jump.

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Telecommunications: Broadband Policy — One Year In
10:45 a.m. – 12:15 p.m.
East Room

• Prof. Marvin Ammori, University of Nebraska-Lincoln College of Law
• Hon. Robert M. McDowell, Commissioner, Federal Communications Commission
• Hon. David M. McIntosh, Partner, Mayer Brown Row & Maw, LLP
• Hon. Kyle E. McSlarrow, President & CEO, National Cable & Telecommunications Association
• Prof. Gigi B. Sohn, President and Founder, Public Knowledge
• Moderator: Hon. Jennifer W. Elrod, U.S. Court of Appeals, Fifth Circuit

Commissioner McDowell – Introductory Remarks

• This year may be busiest year for FCC ever
• In addition to normal duties, stimulus act requires national broadband plan by Feb. 17
• Every aspect of society is affected by the Internet
• Only been privatized 15 years ago, developing very quickly
• Our economy is dependant upon it
• Broadband ubiquity could cost 20 Billion – 350 Billion
• Questions:

–       How can the gov’t provide incentives for private sector investment to achieve this goal?

–       Is the Internet broken?  If so, should the gov’t fix it?

–       How has factual landscape changed in recent years?

–       Are non-state controlled orgs able to resolve network management problems?

–       Can FCC resolve the technical difficulties?

–       Will US regulations2 spark international retaliation?

–       Will gov’t intervention spark abuse?

–       Does the FCC have statutory authority to regulate the Internet?

–       What affects will regulation have on the current ecosystem (infrastructure, current investments?

• Remember, regulations on corporations are subject to first-amendment analysis as well.  This includes the corporations’ right to free speech.
• 5^th amendment issues – depriving corporations’ use of property.
• Let’s hope that what is not broken does not end up broken.
• Let’s hope tat competition is inspired by whatever regulation that is established.

More after the jump.

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