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Justice Breyer Takes the Amtrak Back to the Lochner Era

December 9th, 2014

During oral argument today in Department of Transportation v. Association of American Railroads (transcript here), Justice Breyer does what he does best–raise the specter of Lochner. He did it in Active Liberty and Sorrell v. IMS Health most recently. Today, he worried that a ruling agains the government would “work havoc” on the regulatory state.

JUSTICE BREYER: Going back to Carter v. Carter Coal.

MR. GANNON: Yes.

JUSTICE BREYER: We could go back to Lochner.

Jonathan Keim reports that Breyer made the comments looking right at Nino:

And then it happened: Justice Breyer looked right at Justice Scalia and asked whether deciding the case for the plaintiffs would take us all back to Lochner v. New York (1905),

Justice Breyer returned to Joseph Lochner’s bakery while questioning counsel for the railroads.

JUSTICE BREYER: My reaction was the way you deal with that normally is the statute would be interpreted not to give them the authority to write anticompetitive regulations and you’d attack it under the antitrust laws. There may be other ways to do it.  I’ve never heard of an example where the due process problem really was a constitutional problem under due process. Now ­­ now, maybe there’s some cases I’ve overlooked. The only one coming close, it seemed to me,  is Carter v. Carter Coal, which I always put in the same box as Lochner. Now ­­ now, are we supposed to resurrect that? Is there other authority for that proposition? What is it?

Thomas Dupree answers that Carter Coal remains vital today, and is not a “remnant of the Lochner era.”

I second Jonathan’s comment that Lochner has become a Godwin’s law for the Supreme Court:

Lochner has long been invoked in legal discussions as a reductio ad absurdum: What you’re proposing would take us back to the Lochner era, so you must be wrong. (If you are familiar with Godwin’s Law for Internet discussions, substitute “Lochner” for “Nazis” and you’ve basically got the idea.)

 

The Supreme Court Bar

December 8th, 2014

Joan Biskupic and her team at Reuters have compiled a fascinating and detailed analysis into the elite Supreme Court Bar.

A Reuters examination of nine years of cases shows that 66 of the 17,000 lawyers who petitioned the Supreme Court succeeded at getting their clients’ appeals heard at a remarkable rate. Their appeals were at least six times more likely to be accepted by the court than were all others filed by private lawyers during that period. …

They are the elite of the elite: Although they account for far less than 1 percent of lawyers who filed appeals to the Supreme Court, these attorneys were involved in 43 percent of the cases the high court chose to decide from 2004 through 2012. …

Of the 66 most successful lawyers, 51 worked for law firms that primarily represented corporate interests. In cases pitting the interests of customers, employees or other individuals against those of companies, a leading attorney was three times more likely to launch an appeal for business than for an individual, Reuters found.

Joan was able to talk with 8 of the 9 Justices. With the exception, al of the Justices “embraced” the specialty bar.

Chief Justice John Roberts declined to comment on the Reuters analysis. But exclusive interviews with eight of the nine sitting justices indicate that most embrace the specialty Supreme Court bar. To them, having experienced lawyers handling cases helps the court and comes without any significant cost. Effective representation, not broad diversity among counsel, best serves the interests of justice, they say.

Scalia:

Justice Antonin Scalia, also a conservative, acknowledged that in some instances he will vote against hearing a case if he fears it will be presented poorly and he expects another opportunity to rule on the issues the case presents. “I have never voted to take a case only because a good lawyer was on it,” Scalia said. “But I have voted against what would be a marginally granted petition when it was not well presented…. where the petition demonstrates that the lawyer is not going to argue it well.”

Kennedy:

“They basically are just a step ahead of us in identifying the cases that we’ll take a look at,” said Justice Anthony Kennedy. “They are on the front lines and they apply the same standards” as the justices do. …

A lawyer’s arguments can affect the outcome – not often, but often enough, said Justice Anthony Kennedy. The swing vote in many high-profile cases, Kennedy said a lawyer can change minds by framing a case or issue in ways the justices hadn’t considered.

“I go in with an inclination, underscore inclination,” Kennedy said. “Not a two-week sitting goes by that a justice doesn’t say, ‘I went in with this idea,’” and then heads in a different direction.

 

Thomas:

“Any number of people will vote against a cert petition if they think the lawyering is bad,” said Justice Clarence Thomas, a conservative. He said such decisions stem from the justices’ desires to ensure that both sides have strong representation. …

“The problem is when you have a tough case, you need really good lawyers to tee it up, to make the best arguments,” said Justice Clarence Thomas. “That’s what you are looking for.”  …

So familiar is Olson that justices referred to him by his first name in interviews. As Thomas put it, “You want to hear what Ted has to say.”

 

Ginsburg:

“Business can pay for the best counsel money can buy. The average citizen cannot,” Ginsburg said. “That’s just a reality.”

“If you know you have a solid beginning, two people making the best argument on both sides, that makes it less anxious for you,” said Ginsburg, the senior liberal on the court.

Breyer:

Justice Stephen Breyer values their understanding of how the high court operates. “The Supreme Court is not the CIA,” Breyer said. “I want people to know how the court works.”

Alito:

Measuring the impact of these elite attorneys on how the court ultimately rules is difficult. Many factors affect how justices interpret the Constitution and federal statutes. “It’s not like we’re judging a moot court: Which lawyer is better?” said Justice Samuel Alito. “It’s the case, not the lawyer.”

Kagan and Sotomayor:

The rise of the Supreme Court specialty bar is not universally embraced by the profession. But it is by the justices. Two, in particular, lamented the refusal of some criminal defense lawyers to turn over high court cases to specialists.

“It is as if they are arguing with one hand tied behind their back,” Kagan said.

Said Justice Sonia Sotomayor: “I think it’s malpractice for any lawyer who thinks this is my one shot before the Supreme Court and I have to take it.”

 

Stevens:

As retired Justice John Paul Stevens explained, “They earn respect by their performances. And because they have respect, they are more successful. I am not aware of any downside.”

The makeup of the elite bar is quite homogenous:

Among the 66 leading lawyers, 31 worked as a clerk for a Supreme Court justice; in that role, they wrote memos for the justices that summarized petitions and highlighted cases that might be worth hearing. Twenty-five worked in top posts in the U.S. Office of the Solicitor General, whose lawyers represent the federal government before the court.

We do learn this bit about Neal Katyal, who was not selected as SG:

Katyal later joined the Obama administration as the principal deputy solicitor general in 2009 – the same title, he notes, that Roberts had in the George H.W. Bush administration. After Kagan left as solicitor general to become a justice in 2010, Katyal tried for the top job but lost to the more experienced Donald Verrilli.

“It was probably the hardest professional thing that I have gone through,” Katyal said. Still, he said, he quickly realized the opportunities that a Supreme Court specialty afforded.

“I had calls from a bunch of law firms,” he said. “So many sweet things happened.”

Attorney General Eric Holder hosted a farewell party for him, he said, and Justices Roberts, Breyer and Kagan attended.

Now, I want to visit RBG’s new years party:

When Olson married in 2006, Justice Kennedy and retired Justice Sandra Day O’Connor were among the guests at the ceremony in Napa Valley, California. Olson and Scalia regularly attend an intimate New Year’s Eve dinner. The location: Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s apartment at the Watergate complex. Last year, Kagan went, too.

 

 

FantasySCOTUS and {Marshall}+ Final Predictions for October & November Sittings

December 8th, 2014

This term, the LexPredict team will be generating predictions for all cases argued before the Supreme Court. First, we are aggregating the crowd-sourced predictions of the players on FantasySCOTUS. Second, we are generating predictions from {Marshall}+, our SCOTUS-prediction algorithm. You can view all of the predictions for Supreme Court cases at our Prediction Tracker and you can read more about the {Marshall}+ methodology via our paper on SSRN / arXiv and these presentation slides.

For each sitting, we will compare the FantasySCOTUS predictions with the {Marshall}+ predictions. In a previous post, we offered predictions for cases argued during the October sitting: Heien v. NCDart Cherokee Basin Operating Co., v. OwensHolt v. HobbsWarger v. ShauersInteg. Staff. Solns. v. Busk, and N.C. Board of Dental Examiners v. FTC.

In this post we offer predictions for the remainder of the cases argued during the October sitting, and all cases argued during the November sitting: Jennings v. StephensTeva Pharmaceuticals USA v. SandozOmnicare v. Laborers District Council Construction Industry Pension FundZivotofsky v. KerryDepartment of Homeland Security v. MacLeanJesinoski v. Countrywide Home LoansJohnson v. U.S.Yates v. U.S.M&G Polymers USA, LLC v. TackettT-Mobile South, LLC v. City of RoswellAlabama Democratic Conference v. AlabamaAlabama Legislative Black Caucus v. Alabama, and Comptroller v. Wynne.

For these thirteen cases, FantasySCOTUS and {Marshall}+ agree with the outcome of four out of the thirteen. Of 117 possible Justice votes, FantasySCOTUS and {Marshall}+ agree on 64 (55%). For the year as a whole, out of 170 total predictions, FantasySCOTUS and {Marshall}+ agree on 93 out of 171 (54%). Our level or agreement remains roughly the same. FantasySCOTUS is predicting a significant number of affirms–much higher than the historical average. {Marshall}+ is predicting a majority of reverses, which is more in keeping with the Court’s practices. Because one of the variables in our algorithm considers the duration of time between when the case is argued, and decided, the predictions offered today may differ as the term progresses.

the-tenFantasySCOTUS Crowds Marshall-Animated{Marshall}Algorithm
Jennings v. Stephens

6-3 Reverse

5-4 Affirm

Teva Pharmaceuticals USA v. Sandoz 9-0 Affirm 9-0 Reverse
Omnicare v. Laborers District Council Construction Industry Pension Fund 9-0 Reverse 5-4 Reverse
Department of Homeland Security v. MacLean 5-4 Affirm 9-0 Reverse
Zivotofsky v. Kerry 6-3 Affirm 9-0 Reverse
Jesinoski v. Countrywide Home Loans 5-4 Affirm 5-4 Affirm
Johnson v. U.S. 9-0 Reverse 9-0 Reverse
Yates v. U.S. 8-1 Affirm 8-1 Reverse
T-Mobile South, LLC v. City of Roswell 7-2 Reverse 9-0 Reverse
M&G Polymers USA, LLC v. Tackett 5-4 Affirm 9-0 Reverse
Alabama Democratic Conference v. Alabama 5-4 Affirm 9-0 Reverse
Alabama Legislative Black Caucus v. Alabama 5-4 Affirm 9-0 Reverse
Comptroller v. Wynne 6-3 Affirm 9-0 Reverse

Jennings v. Stephens

Jennings v. Stephens is a habeas corpus case where a prisoner prevailed on an ineffective assistance of counsel claim. This case presents the question of whether the petitioner must “file a separate notice of appeal and motion for a certificate of appealability to raise an allegation of deficient performance that the district court rejected even though the Fifth Circuit acquired jurisdiction over the entire claim as a result of the respondent’s appeal?” The Fifth Circuit  held that such a separate notice was required, and dismissed the appeal.

While FantasySCOTUS predicts a judgment of 6-3 reversal in favor of the prisoner, {Marshall}+ forecasts a 5-4 affirmance in favor of the government. At 52%, the Crowd is largely uncertain about the vote of Chief Justice Roberts.

jennings

 

 

 

Teva Pharmaceuticals USA v. Sandoz

Teva Pharmaceuticals USA v. Sandoz, an IP case, poses the question of whether. “Whether a district court’s factual finding in support of its construction of a patent claim term may be reviewed de novo, as the Federal Circuit requires (and as the panel explicitly did in this case), or only for clear error, as Rule 52(a) requires.”

For this case, FantasySCOTUS and {Marshall}+ could not disagree more. The former predicts a 9-0 affirmance of the Federal Circuit’s decision to use de novo review, while the latter forecasts a 9-0 reversal of the Federal Circuit, and a ruling requiring the application of clear error review. In recent years, the Court has consistently reversed the Federal Circuit. This case may be one of the outliers where the Court rules in a manner inconsistently with many previous Federal Circuit cases.

teva

 

Omnicare v. Laborers District Council Construction Industry Pension Fund

Omnicare v. Laborers District Council Construction Industry Pension Fund is a case involving Section 11 of the Securities Act of 1933. It considers whether a plaintiff may “plaintiff may plead that a statement of opinion was ‘untrue’ merely by alleging that the opinion itself was objectively wrong . . . or must the plaintiff also allege that the statement was subjectively false.” The 6th Circuit held that the plaintiff must only show it was “objectively wrong,” and Omnicare appeals.

In this case, FantasySCOTUS and {Marshall}+ largely agree that the Court will reverse. The crowd thinks it will be unanimous, the algorithm along 5-4 line.

omnicare

 

 

Zivotofsky v. Kerry

Zivotofsky v. Kerry is an important separation of powers case. It considers the constitutionality “a federal statute that directs the Secretary of State, on request, to record the birthplace of an American citizen born in Jerusalem as born in ‘Israel'” on a passport. The D.C. Circuit ruled in favor of Secretary of State John Kerry, finding the statute was unconstitutional.

The results here are very strange. {Marshall}+ is extremely certain that all 9 Justices will vote to reverse, and rule against the Government. Each Justice is around 90%, which is very, very rare. FantasySCOUTS predicts a modest 6-3 victory for the government, with only Justice Scalia, Thomas, and Alito ruling against Secretary Kerry.

zivotofsky

 

Department of Homeland Security v. MacLean

Department of Homeland Security v. MacLean is a whistlebolower case. It considers whether certain statutory protections which are inapplicable when an employee makes a disclosure “specifically prohibited by law,” can bar an agency from taking an enforcement action against an employee who intentionally discloses Sensitive Security Information. The lower court ruled in favor of MacLean, the whistleblower, and the Department of Homeland Security Appeals. (As a funny aside, the respondent in MacLean checks FantasySCOTUS for updates on his case).

FantasySCOTUS and {Marshall}+ only agree on the votes of 4 Justices: Roberts, Scalia, Thomas, and Alito. Overall, the crowd expects a 5-4 Affirm in favor of the Whistleblower, while the algorithm expects a unanimous 9-0 reversal in favor of the government.

maclean

 

Jesinoski v. Countrywide Home Loans

Jesinoski v. Countrywide Home Loans is a case involving the Truth in Lending Act. It considers whether a “borrower exercise his right to rescind a transaction in satisfaction of the requirements . . . by ‘notifying the creditor’ in writing within three years of the consummation of the transaction . . . or must a borrower file a lawsuit within three years of the consummation of the transaction, as the First, Sixth, Eighth, Ninth, and Tenth Circuits have held?

The crowd and algorithm agree that this case will be a 5-4 affirm.

jesinowski

 

Johnson v. United States

Johnson v. United States marks another return to the Court over the application of the Armed Career Criminal Act. This case considers whether the “mere possession of a short-barreled shotgun should be treated as a violent felony under the Armed Career Criminal Act.” The lower court ruled against Johnson, finding that it did qualify.

On appeal, both the FantasySCOTUS crowd, and {Marshall}+ forecast a unanimous reversal, and overall victory for the government.

johnson

 

Yates v. United States

Yates, who threw away small fish he was not allowed to capture, was prosecuted for a violation of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. This case asks whether he “was deprived of fair notice that destruction of fish” would be a “tangible objection.”

The predictions for Yates are almost entirely out of phase. The crowd expects an 8-1 Affirm, in other words, an overwhelming victory for the government. The algorithm expects a 9-0 reversal, giving Yates a complete victory.

yates

 

T-Mobile South, LLC v. City of Roswell

This case concerns whether the City of Roswell’s document, denying T-Mobile the ability to build a cellular tower, “but provid[ed] no reasons whatsoever for the denial, can satisfy this statutory ‘in writing’ requirement.”

The crowd and algorithm are in total agreement that the Court will reverse. The only votes out of sync are those of Justices Thomas and Alito. FantasySCOTUS expects both to affirm. T-Mobile is likely going to win.

tmobile

 

 

M&G Polymers USA, LLC v. Tackett

This Labor Management Relations Act case aims to resolve a three-way circuit split over the “duration of retiree health-care benefits.” The 6th Circuit ruled against M&G Polymers, holding that “silence” should be presumed to “means the parties intended those benefits to vest (and therefore continue indefinitely).”

For this case, the crowds and algorithm agree on the votes of the liberal Justices, but none of the conservatives. The former forecasts a 5-4 victory for Tacket, while the later predicts a complete victory for M&G Polymers.

mg

 

Alabama Democratic Conference v. Alabama

This case poses a complicated Voting Rights Act issue concerning whether a redistricting “amounted to an unconstitutional racial quota and racial gerrymandering.” The crowd predicts a victory for the state along conventional 5-4 lines. The algorithm forecasts a unanimous reversal in favor of the challengers.

aldem

 

Alabama Legislative Black Caucus v. Alabama

The results for the crowd and algorithm are the same for the companion case.alleg

 

Comptroller v. Wynne

In this case, the Court will decide if the Constitution “prohibit[s] a state from taxing all the income of its residents-wherever earned-by mandating a credit for taxes paid on income earned in other states.” The crowd expects a 5-4 victory for Wynne, the taxpayer. The algorithm expects a unanimous reversal in favor of the government, finding the taxation was permissible.

wynne

Presidential Talking Points: I “took an action to change the law,” “If you like your plan you can keep your plan,” Obamacare is “Not A Tax”

December 3rd, 2014

In the lead-up to NFIB v. Sebelius, one statement that lived to haunt the President was his quip to George Stephanopoulos that Obamcare was “not a tax” It even came up during oral arguments before the Court, as the pinned Solicitor General tried to evade the question:

Justice Scalia was not persuaded that the penalty was a tax for any purposes. On the next day, he asked Verrilli directly, “The president said it wasn’t a tax, didn’t he? . . . Is it a tax or not a tax? The president didn’t think it was.” Verrilli, no doubt frustrated by this question, evaded it with some Washington-spin: the president, Verrilli noted, had said that the penalty “wasn’t a tax increase,” but he didn’t say it wasn’t a tax. A new tax must logically be a tax increase.

In response to the President’s moment of candor, the Solicitor General was only able to save the law by explaining that it actually was a tax.

After NFIB v. Sebelius was decided, and Obamacare actually went into effect, another one of the President’s oft-repeated statements haunted him big time–“If you like your plan, you can keep your plan.” This was always an abject lie, as Obamacare forced people to leave non-compliant plans, and in the months leading up to the rollout of HealthCare.gov, the Administration took steps to make it even harder to renew old plans. This whopper was voted the Politifact Lie of the Year.

In response to this lack of candor, the Obama Administration implemented the “administrative fix,” which waived the individual mandate’s penalty for millions, and grandfathered plans that were noncompliant under federal law.

I think we can now add a third to this list of Presidential talking points. With respect to his immigration executive action the President said quite clearly “I just took an action to change the law.” This was absolutely the truth. He did change the law–or more precisely, suspend it. Now, this statement was quoted several times by the Texas suit against the action.

I can already envision Justice Scalia snickering about this when the case gets to the Court. Poor Solicitor General Verrilli will have to explain what the meaning of change is.

For a former constitutional law professor, he really says things which hurt his case in court!

 

 

The Constitutional Limits of Prosecutorial Discretion

November 22nd, 2014

The Department of Justice Office of Legal Counsel’s memorandum justifying President Obama’s new executive action recognizes that prosecutorial discretion is not “unlimited.” As a result, the memo attempts to draw a line between lawful prosecutorial discretion, and unconstitutional executive lawmaking.

Citing the Supreme Court’s 1985 precedent of Heckler v. Chaney, the memo identifies four “principles governing the permissible scope of enforcement discretion.” First, as the Court noted in Chaney, enforcement decisions should reflect “factors which are peculiarly within [the enforcing agency’s] expertise.” This factor would almost always seem to be satisfied.

Second, the President “cannot, under the guise of exercising enforcement discretion, attempt to effectively rewrite the laws to match its policy preferences.” Specifically, the memo adds, “an agency’s enforcement decisions should be consonant with, rather than contrary to, the congressional policy underlying the statutes the agency is charged with administering.” This argument reflects the backdrop of Congressional acquiescence, and the failure of the legislative branch to set any broad policies concerning immigration laws.

Third, the President cannot “‘consciously and expressly adopt[] a general policy’ that is so extreme as to amount to an abdication of its statutory responsibilities.” The memo continues, “Abdication of the duties assigned to the agency by statute is ordinarily incompatible with the constitutional obligation to faithfully execute the laws.” The “Take Care” clause is violated by such an abdication.

The fourth principle, which is not from Chaney, but derived from its progeny is the most important: “non-enforcement decisions are most comfortably characterized as judicially unreviewable exercises of enforcement discretion when they are made on a case-by-case basis.” The memo proceeds to explain that this final factor is key: “case-by-case enforcement decisions” renders non-enforcement lawful.

The most important hurdle DOJ must vault to justify the President’s new executive action policy is to explain how the Administration’s blanket policy of non-enforcement for those who meet certain criteria fits within Heckler’s requirement for an individualized assessment.

The memo repeatedly cites Crowley Caribbean Transp., Inc. v. Peña (D.C. Cir. 1994), which warned that “a broad policyagainst enforcement poses special risks that [the government] ‘has consciously and expressly adopted a general policy that is so extreme as to amount to an abdication of its statutory responsibilities.’” In other words, if the government adopts a “broad” blanket policy of non-enforcement, there are “special risks” that it amounts to what Heckler called an “abdication of its statutory responsibilities,” and a possible violation of the Constitution.

The OLC memo parries this admonition, by explaining “That does not mean that all “general policies” respecting non-enforcement are categorically forbidden. There is a difference between a “general policy” (permissible) and “broad policy” (“risky” business). This is the essential inquiry — are President Obama’s policies with respect to DACA and IAEA “general,” or too “broad” so as to pose “special risks.”

OLC must explain how these “general policies” still entail “individualized assessments.” To do this, the memo turns to Justice Scalia’s 1993 opinion in Reno v. Flores. This case considered an INS policy whereby alien juveniles who were arrested without their parents would not be released into the custody of “responsible adults.” The petitioners contended the INS policy amounted to a “blanket’ presumption of the unsuitability of custodians other than parents, close relatives, and guardians.” In other words, there was no individualized assessment, and the INS was declining to enforce a statute would allow the release of the juveniles.

Agreeing that there may be risks to such a policy, Justice Scalia stressed that the Attorney’s General “exercise of discretion … requires ‘some level of individualized determination.’” But, Scalia countered, the government need not “forswear use of reasonable presumptions and generic rules.” In other words, applying certain types of presumptions or rules, while they may seem to be a “blanket policy,” are in fact forms of individualized assessment. Such approaches are not too “broad” to pose constitutional problems.

Justice Scalia continued, and noted that by asking a series of questions — such as whether the alien is “under 18 years of age” or if he has an “adult relative or legal guardian” — the INS “makes those determinations that are specific to the individual and necessary to accurate application of the regulation.” With these questions, Scalia concludes, “the particularization and individuation need go no further than this.”

Dissenting from this position was Justice Stevens, joined by Justice Blackmun. Justice Stevens would reject the notion that “mere presumptions” satisfy the requisite individualized determination requirement: “a blanket rule that simplypresumes that detention is more appropriate than release to responsible adults is not narrowly focused.” Stevens would require a meaningful assessment, on a case-by-case of whether an alien juvenile could be released into the custody of a “responsible adult.”

Based on Reno, the OLC memo explains that “some ‘general policies’ may, for example, merely provide a framework for making individualized, discretionary assessments about whether to initiate enforcement actions in particular cases.” This is how OLC justifies the President’s new immigration policy, as well as DACA. The memo explains what approaches are permissible: “General policies” that “provide a framework” that allows the government to make “individualized, discretionary assessments” about whether or not to enforce the deportation laws. The rule, if it can be so simply stated, is that applying “reasonable presumptions and generic rules,” pursuant to a “general policy” is permissible, so long as it involves “some level of individualized determination” with “case-by-case discretion.”

At every step of the analysis, the memo returns to this framework. With respect to prioritization of criminals (felons over families, as the talking point goes), OLC explains that “although the proposed policy is not a ‘single-shot non-enforcement decision,’ neither does it amount to an abdicationof DHS’s statutory responsibilities, or constitute a legislative rule overriding the commands of the substantive statute.” Why is this seemingly blanket policy not an abdication? Because it “provides a general framework for exercising enforcement discretion in individual cases, rather than establishing anabsolute, inflexible policy of not enforcing the immigration laws in certain categories of cases.”

In its discussion of “expansion of deferred action to new classes of aliens,” OLC stresses that “Immigration officials cannotabdicate their statutory responsibilities under the guise ofexercising enforcement discretion.” To avoid this abdication, any program should “leave room for individualized evaluation of whether a particular case warrants the expenditure of resources for enforcement.”

Finally to rebut claims that the “breadth” of the program raises “particular concerns,” OLC falls back on the same line of reasoning. “The guarantee of individualized, case-by-case review helps avoid potential concerns that, in establishing such eligibility criteria, the Executive is attempting to rewrite the law by defining new categories of aliens who are automatically entitled to particular immigration relief.” The last, best hope of a blanket non-enforcement policy is the appearance of an “individualized assessment.”

I emphasize “appearance,” because it is not clear the policy President Obama announced recently employs an actual “individualized assessment.” While the OLC’s theory seems consistent with precedent — and OLC went out of its way to do so — it remains to be seen whether the policy operates in accordance with this theory.

To use a historical example, consider President Obama’s 2012 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). As OLC noted in their memo, they “orally advised” the Administration that “class-wide basis would raise distinct questions not implicated by ad hoc grants of deferred action.” Specifically, the memo warned that “granting deferred action automatically to all applicants who satisfied the threshold eligibility criteria” would be problematic. Secretary Janet Napolitano’s June 2012 memo, announcing DACA, provided that “USCIS should establish a clear and efficient process for exercising prosecutorial discretion, on an individual basis.” This is very similar language to Secretary Johnson’s memo.

Despite paying lip service to discretion, according to a Brookings report, only 1% of applicants were denied deferrals. I could not find any explanation for why, under the capacious standards set by DHS, the denial rate was even this high. A 1% denial rate seems awfully close to “automatic” relief.

Justice Scalia’s opinion in Reno stressed that “exercise of discretion … requires ‘some level of individualized determination.’” The relevant question here, is “individualized determination” of what. In Reno, the discretion was based on an “individualized determination” of a statute passed by Congress — whether the alien juveniles could be released to certain adults. Here, the “individualized determination” is based on policies the Obama Administration itself created out of whole cloth. (As an aside about DACA, because the Dreamers did not have an independent path to citizenship, unlike the parents of U.S. Citizens under IAEA, it is unclear how the OLC’s memo justifies deferring their deportation. I’ll address this in a future post). Whatever deference may be owed to the statute passed by Congress, and implemented by INS in Reno, does not exist for President Obama’s unilateral executive action.

OLC lists the factors to consider for IAEA , as explained in a Draft Memo by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, cited in the OLC Memo (available here):

Specifically, DHS has proposed to implement a program under which an alien could apply for, and would be eligible to receive, deferred action if he or she is not a DHS removal priority under the policy described above; has continuously resided in the United States since before January 1, 2010; has a child who is either a U.S. citizen or a lawful permanent resident; is physically present in the United States both when DHS announces its program and at the time of application for deferred action; and presents “no other factors that, in theexercise of discretion, make[] the grant of deferred action inappropriate.” Draft Memorandum for Leon Rodriguez, Director, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, et al., from Jeh Charles Johnson, Secretary of Homeland Security, Re: Exercising Prosecutorial Discretion with Respect to Individuals Who Came to the United States as Children and Others at 4 (Nov. 17, 2014)

These factors are equally capacious as those under DACA, and are likely to yield a similar denial rate. Secretary Jeh Johnson provides absolutely no guidance of what this “exercise of discretion” should be, and what the grounds are for rejecting an application. This must be deliberate, as OLC felt compelled to address this absence. The memo explains, “The proposed policydoes not specify what would count as such a factor; it thus leaves the relevant USCIS official with substantial discretion to determine whether a grant of deferred action is warranted.” Yet, OLC still expects that officials “evaluating the alien’s deferred action application must still make a judgment, in the exercise of her discretion, about whether that alien presents any other factor that would make a grant of deferred action inappropriate.” While this absence of guidance should create a cause for concern, OLC is satisfied. “This feature of the proposed program ensures that it does not create a categorical entitlement to deferred action that could raise concerns that DHS is either impermissibly attempting to rewrite or categorically declining to enforce the law with respect to a particular group of undocumented aliens.” This is likely discretion in name only.

OLC explains that “Some ‘general policies’ may, for example, merely provide a framework for making individualized, discretionary assessments about whether to initiate enforcement actions in particular cases.” It is unclear how this policy does anything more than pay lip service to “individualized, discretionary assessments about whether to initiate enforcement actions in particular cases.” By its own terms, the President’s policy seems to flunk OLC’s approach. The President has in mind a group he wants to exempt from the law, and created a policy to do just that. Further, from a practical perspective, if DACA is any guide, this “exercise of discretion” is not particularly meaningful.

With respect to the future applications of up to 4 million immigrants, only 24 Field Offices — whose workers we are told are extremely overworked — are expected to manage all of those applications. It’s not hard to imagine that this individualized assessment quickly turns into a rubber stamp. It cannot be the rule of law that the President can create criteria that automatically apply to millions, then instruct his agents to check off a few boxes that will always be checked, and call it an individualized assessment. The policy is designed to exempt everyone who correctly signs up. This is not an instance of executive discretion, but of clerical approval. Such a ministerial task seems inconsistent with the type of analysis required byHeckler.

Finally, I think it is essential to separate the two types of executive action the President is taking: prioritization and deferred action. They are not the same.

The first — prioritization of deporting those who are dangerous — falls closer to traditional roles of prosecutorial discretion. But, in the usual case, once a person is not prioritized for enforcement, there are no further costs to the government (I will put aside for the moment the fact that a person who is not deported may inflict other social costs). Resources are saved, and they can be spent better elsewhere.

But here we have a one-two punch. First, the President prioritizes. Second, deferred action is offered for a large portion of those who fall outside of the priority category. Instead of simply rearranging priorities for the purpose of conserving resources with regard to one class, the policy creates a framework where brand new costs are incurred due to setting the priorities. And it is this second group — a materially larger group — that creates constitutional difficulties. The weakness of the latter aspect makes the justification for the former less plausible. In total, the President’s total actions are legally lesser than the sum of its parts.

Beyond immigration, the same prosecutorial discretion was used to justify non-enforcement of Obamacare. This includes the waiver for the Obamacare individual mandate (the so-called administrative fix), where anyone who “believes” that Obamacare was “unaffordable” would be exempt from the mandate penalty. It seems this relief was virtually automatic for anyone who asked, without any individualized assessment. Same for the employer mandate, where the Administration exempted all businesses with between 50 and 99 employees till 2016. Again, automatic. It’s unclear that any businesses that met these criteria were denied.

It cannot be the rule of law that the President can create arbitrary criteria of where the law will not apply, and then exempt anyone who meets those criteria. To quote the court inPena, this is the very type of “a broad policy against enforcement [that] poses special risks [because] it ‘has consciously and expressly adopted a general policy that is so extreme as to amount to an abdication of its statutory responsibilities.’”

The administrative fix is subject to a suit by the State of West Virginia, which is currently pending before D.D.C. on a motion for summary judgment. The employer mandate delay is the subject of the House of Representative’s lawsuit. Both plaintiffs should amply cite the OLC memo to explain why the President lacks this discretion, with an important caveat — whatever vast discretion exists in the immigration context is not nearly as strong in health care law,which Congress has certainly not acquiesced to.

As I explain in Unprecedented: The Constitutional Challenge to Obamacare, the Solicitor General adopted the strategy of notoffering a clear limiting principle about the scope of the commerce clause. The fear was that by offering a limiting principle, it would bind the government in ways they would not want to be bound in the future. The SG determined that if he was going to lose, he would rather let the Court craft a limiting principle for him. With this OLC memo, we see the wisdom of the SG’s decision. By putting forth a standard that the administration may not have complied with, it has opened itself up to myriad challenges, some under way, and others to come. My sequel, tentatively titled Unraveled: Obamacare, Religious Liberty, and Executive Power, continues to get more interesting.

–Cross-Posted at The Volokh Conspiracy

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