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FantasySCOTUS Predictions Before, During, and After Oral Arguments in King v. Burwell

March 6th, 2015

FiveThirtyEight continues to mine the FantasySCOTUS dataset for insights into Supreme Court forecasts. The latest feature offers insights into how the predictions for the Court–Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Kennedy–fluctuated throughout leading up to, during, and after oral arguments as reports leaked out:

Here are the shifts in the predictions over the course of the past few days. The plot represents a rolling average of the last 200 predictions entered by FantasySCOTUS players. The proportion of predicted votes to strike a blow to the ACA fell sharply Wednesday. …

Roberts was seen as significantly less likely to vote against maintaining the ACA than he was before oral argument. Kennedy, another swing vote, also came away seeming less likely to vote against the ACA.

Despite the shifts on King v. Burwell, the outcome is still up in the air. Josh Blackman, FantasySCOTUS’s creator, told me: “Going into arguments, I thought the case was a tossup. Leaving arguments, I still think the case is a tossup. And it looks like the players of FantasySCOTUS agree: It is a tossup.”

roeder-datalab-kingvburnwell-1

JUSTICE REVERSAL CHANCE BEFORE AFTER
Scalia 91% 93%
Thomas 90 92
Alito 88 91
Kennedy 66 50
Roberts 53 43
Ginsburg 17 12
Sotomayor 17 12
Breyer 17 11
Kagan 16 10

The SG Should Not Have Said “Well, this Congress, Your Honor”

March 4th, 2015

One of the more jarring exchanges today at oral arguments in King v. Burwell was between Justice Scalia and Solicitor General Verrilli. Justice Scalia said that if this statute doesn’t work, Congress can fix it.

We all know the odds of this happening are slim–though reconciliation may be an option to get beyond the filibuster and force the President’s veto–and reflects what Richard Re has called the “Doctrine of One Last Chance.” (I discussed it here in the context of Pruitt v. Burwell). Like in Shelby County, the Court can give Congress a task they know they won’t do. We all know this. But the Solicitor General is not supposed to acknowledge it. But acknowledge it, he did.

JUSTICE SCALIA: What about ­­ what about Congress? You really think Congress is just going to sit there while ­­ while all of these disastrous consequences ensue.

I mean, how often have we come out with a decision such as the ­­ you know, the bankruptcy court decision? Congress adjusts, enacts a statute that ­­ that takes care of the problem. It happens all the time. Why is that not going to happen here?

GENERAL VERRILLI: Well, this Congress, Your Honor, I ­­ I ­­

(Laughter.)

You can’t tell from the transcript, but Verrilli said it very sarcastically, with the stress on “this.” As in, “are you kidding me? This Congress? Fix something? Ha.” I heard a slight chuckle in his voice.

Nancy Pelosi, who was sitting 3 seats away from me, shook her head at this line. It’s okay for Pelosi to make these points, but not the Solicitor General at the lectern.

 

After the laughter, Verrilli dug his hole deeper.

GENERAL VERRILLI: You know, I mean, of course, theoretically ­­ of course, theoretically they could.

This was also said with a slight chuckle.

Justice Scalia, who seemed visibly offended by this comment, replied sharply.

JUSTICE SCALIA: I ­­ I don’t care what Congress you’re talking about. If the consequences are  as disastrous as you say, so many million people  without ­­ without insurance and whatnot, yes, I think this Congress would act.

I found it entirely inappropriate for the SG to say this. This wasn’t impromptu, but was no doubt a rehearsed line. And it wasn’t necessary to his argument. This was a political comment, not a legal one. It was beneath the Office to dignify these partisan concerns. Verrilli, whom I defended in my book (against the currents) undermined his credibility with these two remarks. He should not have said them.

Federalism, The Avoidance Canon, and the Remedy

March 4th, 2015

When the D.C. Circuit invalidated the IRS Rule in July, if I had told you that Justice Sotomayor would be pressing Mike Carvin on the principles of federalism, you would have thought I was crazy. And after oral arguments, here we are. The federalism argument goes something like this: in order to avoid potential coercion problems, whereby states are “forced” to choose between establishing exchange or triggering a death spiral, the Court should vote to uphold the Rule, even if it it unambiguously limits credits to states that establish exchanges. Several of Justice Kennedy’s question seemed to suggest this troubled him, and he referred to it as a “serious constitutional problem.”

While this is now the en vogue argument, and has filled the legal blogosphere, I pause to note that the remedy is, shall we say, complicated, for the reasons pointed out in NFIB v. Sebelius. Seven Justices found that the Medicaid expansion, as written, was unconstitutionally coercive. The joint opinion (Scalia, Kennedy, Thomas, and Alito), after finding that the condition violated the principles articulated in South Dakota v. Dole, voted to invalidate the entire Medicaid expansion.

Seven Members of the Court agree that the Medicaid Expansion, as enacted by [2667] Congress, is unconstitutional. See Part IV-A to IV-E, supra; Part IV-A, ante, at ___ – ___, 183 L. Ed. 2d, at 490-497 (opinion of Roberts, C. J., joined by Breyer and Kagan, JJ.). Because the Medicaid Expansion is unconstitutional, the question of remedy arises. The most natural remedy would be to invalidate the Medicaid Expansion. However, the Government proposes–in two cursory sentences at the very end of its brief–preserving the Expansion. Under its proposal, States would receive the additional Medicaid funds if they expand eligibility, but States would keep their pre-existing Medicaid funds if they do not expand eligibility. We cannot accept the Government’s suggestion.

The Chief Justice, along with Justices Kagan and Breyer, in the other saving construction that people don’t talk about, rewrote the statute–states that wanted to expand Medicaid would  be able to, and states that did not could keep the “old” money. The new Medicaid expansion, which we are laboring under today, is at great odds with the one Congress designed.

The joint opinion made this point, however, and stressed that it is not for the Courts to rewrite statutes:

The reality that States were given no real choice but to expand Medicaid was not an accident. Congress assumed States would have no choice, and the ACA depends on States’ having no choice, because its Mandate requires low-income individuals to obtain insurance many of them can afford only through the Medicaid Expansion. Furthermore, a State’s withdrawal might subject everyone in the State to much higher insurance premiums. That is because the Medicaid Expansion will no longer offset the cost to the insurance industry imposed by the ACA’s insurance regulations and taxes, a point that is explained in more detail in the severability section below. To make the Medicaid Expansion optional despite the ACA’s structure and design “ ‘would be to make a new law, not to enforce an old one. This is no part of our duty.’ Trade-Mark Cases, 100 U.S. 82, 99, 25 L. Ed. 550, 1879 Dec. Comm’r Pat. 619 (1879).

The joint dissent labels this rewriting of the statute a “judicial usurpation”:

This analysis also shows how closely interrelated the Act is, and this is all the more reason why it is judicial usurpation to impose an entirely new mechanism for withdrawal of Medicaid funding, see Part IV-F, supra, which is one of many examples of how rewriting the Act alters its dynamics.

This brings us back to King v. Burwell, where we are faced with a somewhat analogous situation. If the Court sees fit to avoid the constitutional difficulty by construing an unambiguous statute as ambiguous, they run into the broader jurisprudential issue of rewriting a law that the Court admits Congress didn’t write. If the statute is ambiguous, and the government wins at Chevon Step II, there is no need to engage the canon of avoidance. You only go to the canon if the government loses at Chevron Step II. In other words, the only way to get to the constitutional avoidance canon is to find that the statute does not provide for subsidies. However, the result of applying the canon would be to rewrite the statute the Court just found that Congress did not enact. First, the Court would hold that Congress did not provide subsidies for states without exchanges, but then hold, we will reach that result anyway, to avoid a constitutional difficulty. This is a perverse application of the federalism, which inflicts great violence to the will of Congress.

The joint opinion makes this point very clear:

The Court severs nothing, but simply revises §1396c to read as the Court would desire. We should not accept the Government’s invitation to attempt to solve a constitutional problem by rewriting the Medicaid Expansion so as to allow States that reject it to retain their pre-existing Medicaid funds. Worse, the Government’s remedy, [2668] now adopted by the Court, takes the ACA and this Nation in a new direction and charts a course for federalism that the Court, not the Congress, has chosen; but under the Constitution, that power and authority do not rest with this Court.

Again, the only way to get to the avoidance canon is to find that Congress did not intend to provide subsidies for states without exchanges. But rewriting the statute would do just that. The Court would be enacting a statute directly at odds with what Congress intended. As the joint opinion notes, citing many recent cases including PCAOB, this is not how severance jurisprudence works.

The Court has applied a two-part guide as the framework for severability analysis. The test has been deemed “well established.” Alaska Airlines, Inc. v. Brock, 480 U.S. 678, 684, 107 S. Ct. 1476, 94 L. Ed. 2d 661 (1987). First, if the Court holds a statutory provision unconstitutional, it then determines whether the now truncated statute will operate in themanner Congress intended. If not, the remaining provisions must be invalidated. See id., at 685, 107 S. Ct. 1476, 94 L. Ed. 2d 661. In Alaska Airlines, the Court clarified that this first inquiry requires more than asking whether “the balance of the legislation is incapable of functioning independently.” Id., at 684, 107 S. Ct. 1476, 94 L. Ed. 2d 661. Even if the remaining provisions will operate in some coherent way, that alone does not save the statute.The question is whether the provisions will work as Congress intended. The “relevant inquiry in evaluating severability is whether the statute will function in a manner consistent with the intent of Congress.” Id., at 685, 107 S. Ct. 1476, 94 L. Ed. 2d 661 (emphasis [2669]  in original). See also Free Enter. Fund v. Pub. Co. Accounting Oversight Bd., 561 U.S. 477, 130 S. Ct. 3138, 177 L. Ed. 2d 706 (2010) (the Act “remains fully operative as a law with these tenure restrictions excised”) (internal quotation marks omitted); United States v. Booker, 543 U.S. 220, 227, 125 S. Ct. 738, 160 L. Ed. 2d 621 (2005) (“[T]wo provisions . . . must be invalidated in order to allow the statute to operate in a manner consistent with congressional intent”); Mille Lacs, supra, at 194, 119 S. Ct. 1187, 143 L. Ed. 2d 270 (“[E]mbodying as it did one coherent policy, [the entire order] is inseverable”).

Second, even if the remaining provisions can operate as Congress designed them to operate, the Court must determine if Congress would have enacted them standing alone and without the unconstitutional portion. If Congress would not, those provisions, too, must be invalidated. See Alaska Airlines, supra, at 685, 107 S. Ct. 1476, 94 L. Ed. 2d 661 (“[T]he unconstitutional provision must be severed unless the statute created in its absence is legislation that Congress would not have enacted”); see also Free Enterprise Fund, supra, at ___, 130 S. Ct. 3138, 177 L. Ed. 2d 706 (“[N]othing in the statute’s text or historical context makes it ‘evident’ that Congress, faced with the limitations imposed by the Constitution, would have preferred no Board at all to a Board whose members are removable at will”); Ayotte v. Planned Parenthood of Northern New Eng., 546 U.S. 320, 330, 126 S. Ct. 961, 163 L. Ed. 2d 812 (2006) (“Would the legislature have preferred what is left of its statute to no statute at all”); Denver Area Ed. Telecommunications Consortium, Inc. v. FCC, 518 U.S. 727, 767, 116 S. Ct. 2374, 135 L. Ed. 2d 888 (1996) (plurality opinion) (“Would Congress still have passed § 10(a) had it known that the remaining provisions were invalid” (internal quotation marks and brackets omitted)).

Avoiding the constitutional issue would yield far greater constitutional difficulties than striking down the IRS Rule. In truth, the only way to apply the principles of the joint opinion here would be to invalidate ALL of the subsidies. No state, whether it established an exchange, or not, would get any tax credits. The joint opinion explains this approach would be preferable to rewriting the law.

An automatic or too cursory severance of statutory provisions risks “rewrit[ing] a statute and giv[ing] it an effect altogether different from that sought by the measure viewed as a whole.”Railroad Retirement Bd. v. Alton R. Co., 295 U.S. 330, 362, 55 S. Ct. 758, 79 L. Ed. 1468 (1935). The Judiciary, if it orders uncritical severance, then assumes the legislative function; for it imposes on the Nation, by the Court’s decree, its own new statutory regime, consisting of policies, risks, and duties that Congress did not enact. That can be a more extreme exercise of the judicial power than striking the whole statute and allowing Congress to address the conditions that pertained when the statute was considered at the outset.

At the end of the day, the avoidance canon creates more problems than it solves.

Are the Justices “Perfectly Entitled” to Discuss Wisdom of Law “In Lectures” and “Law Review Articles”?

March 1st, 2015

At the very end of Justice Kagan’s otherwise enjoyable opinion in Yates, the Junior Justice added an ill-advised dicta about dicta. She began by making a fair (and I think correct) point–the plurality’s decision is driven by a (reasonable) concern about over-criminalization. There’s no reason a person who throws away some fish should go to jail for the statutory maximum of 20 years. Kagan concedes that point, but reminds us that here, the Florida Man–whose mens rea was “knowingly” impeding a federal investigation–only got 30 days. This isn’t the poster child of over-criminalization we read about in the Wall Street Journal.

However, after gutting the plurality’s argument, like the grouper, Justice Kagan goes overboard.

Still and all, I tend to think, for the reasons the plurality gives, that §1519 is a bad law— too broad and undifferentiated, with too-high maximum penalties, which give prosecutors too much leverage and sentencers too much discretion. And I’d go further: In those ways, §1519 is unfortunately not an outlier, but an emblem of a deeper pathology in the federal criminal code.

Why are these statements necessary, at all? What difference does it make if the Justices think it is “bad law?” Why, after voting to uphold Yates’s conviction, need the Court weigh in on this “deeper pathology in the federal code”?

In the final paragraph, Kagan climbs for the high-board to make an even bigger splash.

But whatever the wisdom or folly of §1519, this Court does not get to rewrite the law. “Resolution of the pros and cons of whether a statute should sweep broadly or narrowly is for Congress.” Rodgers, 466 U. S., at 484. If judges disagree with Congress’s choice, we are perfectly entitled to say so—in lectures, in law review articles, and even in dicta. But we are not entitled to replace the stat- ute Congress enacted with an alternative of our own design.

I’ll forgive the uncharacteristically poor sentence construction (beginning two sentences in a paragraph with “But”–yuck), but her point seems entirely wrong. Why are judges “perfectly entitled” to say so, anywhere? And even if they are entitled to say so, how is it that dicta–where judge arguably have some room to opine on such matters–is equated to lectures and law reviews? These extra-judicial statements are not the proper place for the Justices to weigh in on the “folly.” Imagine if Justice Scalia ripped the effectiveness of the ACA, or if Justice Ginsburg critiqued the desirability of bans on gay marriage? (Never mind).

Justice Ginsburg’s indiscretions of late, and more recently those of Justice Stevens, should tell us that the Justices should not be talking about these matters in lectures or law review articles, or interviews, or anywhere. I’ll grumble at dicta, but they are part of the written opinion. Lectures and law reviews are not.

How about judges decline to opine on these matters outside their opinions, period. Wouldn’t that be something? We would be no worse off for it.

Justice Kagan is the Master of the Parenthetical Aside to Break #SCOTUS Fourth Wall

March 1st, 2015

I remain enamored by Justice Kagan’s writing style, and in particular her colloquial manner. One of her best tools is the parenthetical aside–as if she is breaking the Supreme Court’s proverbial “fourth wall.” Instead of speaking to the U.S. Reports, she is speaking directly to us. Consider a few parentheticals, speaking directly to the audience, in her dissent in Yates v. United States.

So the ordinary meaning of the term “tangible object” in §1519, as no one here disputes, covers fish (including too-small red grouper).

From Alabama and Alaska through Wisconsin and Wyoming (and trust me—in all that come between), States similarly use the terms “tangible objects” and “tangible things” in statutes and rules of all sorts.

That is not necessarily the end of the matter; I agree with the plurality (really, who does not?) that context matters in interpreting statutes.

Section 1519 refers to “any” tangible object, thus indicating (in line with that word’s plain meaning) a tangible object “of whatever kind.”

This Court has time and again recognized that “any” has “an expansive meaning,” bringing within a statute’s reach all types of the item (here, “tangible object”) to which the law refers.

These parentheticals serve no purpose, other than to connect with the reader–and connect they do. When I read a Kagan opinion, I feel like she is having a personal conversation with me. It’s almost like when Zak Morris called a time-out on Saved By The Bell and spoke directly to the camera.

Pound for pound, the Chief is still the best technical writer, and Scalia is the most witty, but I enjoy reading Kagan’s decisions the most. With sentences like these, who wouldn’t:

A fish is, of course, a discrete thing that possesses physical form. See generally Dr. Seuss, One Fish Two Fish Red Fish Blue Fish (1960).

Not a one has limited the phrase’s scope to objects that record or preserve information.

And legislative history, for those who care about it, puts extra icing on a cake already frosted.

In any event, score this as another victory for Florida Man.

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