For some time, I have wondered what will happen the day after King v. Burwell is decided. If the Court invalidates the subsidies, then 34 states without a state-run exchange will lose their subsidies. To figure out what this means politically, I broke down each state based on the party of its Senators.
Of those 34 states affected, and their 67 Senators (minus Angus King), 49 are Republicans and 18 are Democrats. In other words, once the mandate issues, the subsidies turn off, and insurers exit the market, people will start calling their Senators to complain. And the overwhelming majority of those receiving the complaints will be Republicans. This is 49 out of the entire caucus of 54.
I can’t see this ending well for the GOP, as they will be in the toughest spot.