Predictions For the Remaining Blockbusters

May 27th, 2013

It’s the home stretch. Here are the predictions from for the remaining Blockbusters. The end of this term should be a doozy.

Here are the highlights:

I should also focus on the predictions of Chief Justice Melech, the reigning champion of FantasySCOTUS:

Update: Melech writes in with this correction:

You got it backwards on the Prop 8 standing. My prediction is that only Scalia, Thomas, and Alito will find standing.

To clarify the DOMA jurisdiction question, my predictions actually have five justices finding jurisdiction of some sort, three allowing executive standing, and two allowing House of Representatives standing.

FInally, to further clarify I (and most probably the other top predictors) are predicting each issue as to the probable vote of the Justice in question should he or she decide to reach that issue. If I am right, for instance, that the SCOTUS majority will vote against standing in the prop 8 case, then most probably the justices in the majority will not indicate how they would come out on the merits.

And the rest of the cases:

Case FantasySCOTUS Prediction Outcome    
Case FantasySCOTUS Prediction Outcome Date Decided Accuracy
Adoptive Couple v. Baby Girl Affirm   n/a
Agency for Int’l Deveopment v. Alliance for Open Society Int’l Affirm   n/a
Alleyne v. U.S. Affirm   n/a
American Express Co. v. Italian Colors Restaurant Affirm   n/a
American Trucking Associations v. City of Los Angeles Affirm   n/a
Arizona v. The Inter Trial Council of Arizona Reverse   n/a
Association for Molecular Pathology v. Myriad Genetics Reverse   n/a
Bond v. U.S. Affirm   n/a
Cable Telecom., and Tech. v. FCC Affirm   n/a
Chadbourne & Parke LLP v. Troice Affirm   n/a
Descamps v. U.S. Affirm   n/a
Federal Trade Commission v. Actavis Affirm   n/a
Fisher v. University of Texas at Austin Reverse   n/a
Hillman v. Maretta Affirm   n/a
Hollingsworth v. Perry – Do Petitioners Have Standing? Affirm   n/a
Hollingsworth v. Perry – Does Prop 8 Violate the Equal Protection Clause? Affirm   n/a
Horne v. Dep’t of Agriculture Reverse   n/a
Koontz v. St. Johns River Water Management District Affirm   n/a
Maracich v. Spears Reverse   n/a
Maryland v. King Affirm   n/a
McQuiggin v. Perkins Affirm   n/a
Mutual Pharmaceutical Co. v. Bartlett Reverse   n/a
Oxford Health Plans LLC v. Sutter Affirm   n/a
Peugh v. U.S. Affirm   n/a
Proskauer Rose LLP v. Troice Reverse   n/a
Salinas v. Texas Reverse   n/a
Sekhar v. U.S. Affirm   n/a
Shelby County v. Holder Reverse   n/a
Tarrant Regional Water District v. Herrmann Affirm   n/a
Trevino v. Thaler Reverse   n/a
U.S. Davila Affirm   n/a
U.S. v. Kebodeaux Reverse   n/a
United States v. Windsor – Does Counsel for House of Representatives have Standing? Affirm   n/a
United States v. Windsor – Does DOMA violation the Equal Protection Component of the 5th Amendment or Federalism Principles? Affirm   n/a
United States v. Windsor – Does SG’s agreement with 2nd Circuit deprive SCOTUS of jurisdiction? Affirm   n/a
University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center v. Nassar Reverse   n/a
Vance v. Ball State University Affirm   n/a
Willis of Colorado Inc. v. Troice Reverse   n/a

So far this term, FantasySCOTUS is around 73% accuracy (our average over the last few years). This number should shake up as we get closer to the last day of the term.