It’s the home stretch. Here are the predictions from FantasySCOTUS.net for the remaining Blockbusters. The end of this term should be a doozy.
Here are the highlights:
- Agency for Int’l Deveopment v. Alliance for Open Society Int’l – 63% Affirm
- Fisher v. University of Texas at Austin – 60% Reverse (Program is unconstitutional) – Justice Kennedy is at 67% to reverse
- Hollingsworth v. Perry – Do Petitioners Have Standing? – 68.5% Affirm (Yes, there is standing)
- Hollingsworth v. Perry – Does Prop 8 Violate the Equal Protection Clause? – 72.63% Affirm (Yes, it is unconstitutional)
- Shelby County v. Holder – 51.38% Reverse, 48.62% Affirm – This one is way too close to call.
- United States v. Windsor – Does Counsel for House of Representatives have Standing? 78% Affirm (Yes, there is standing)
- United States v. Windsor – Does DOMA violation the Equal Protection Component of the 5th Amendment or Federalism Principles? – 83.6% Affirm (Yes, it is unconstitutional)
- United States v. Windsor – Does SG’s agreement with 2nd Circuit deprive SCOTUS of jurisdiction – 78.6% Affirm (No, SCOTUS has jurisdiction)
I should also focus on the predictions of Chief Justice Melech, the reigning champion of FantasySCOTUS:
- Fisher v. University of Texas at Austin – With Kagan recused, Melech predicts a 5-3 split, with Kennedy voting with the conservatives.
- Hollingsworth v. Perry – Do Petitioners Have Standing? – Melech predicts that Scalia, Thomas, and Alito will find that petitioners lack standing. The rest will find standing is present.
- Hollingsworth v. Perry – Does Prop 8 Violate the Equal Protection Clause? – Melech predicts a 5-4 split, with Kennedy joining the liberals to find a constitutional violation.
- Shelby County v. Holder – Melech predicts a 5-4 reversal, with Kennedy and Roberts voting in the majority.
- United States v. Windsor – Does Counsel for House of Representatives have Standing? Melech predicts that all, except Scalia and Alito, find a lack of standing.
- United States v. Windsor – Does DOMA violation the Equal Protection Component of the 5th Amendment or Federalism Principles? – Melech predicts a 5-4 split, with Kennedy voting with the liberal justices to find that DOMA is unconstitutional.
- United States v. Windsor – Does SG’s agreement with 2nd Circuit deprive SCOTUS of jurisdiction – Melech predicts that only Justices Breyer, Sotomayor, and Kagan will find that the Court has jurisdiction, and the rest will reverse the case.
Update: Melech writes in with this correction:
You got it backwards on the Prop 8 standing. My prediction is that only Scalia, Thomas, and Alito will find standing.
To clarify the DOMA jurisdiction question, my predictions actually have five justices finding jurisdiction of some sort, three allowing executive standing, and two allowing House of Representatives standing.
FInally, to further clarify I (and most probably the other top predictors) are predicting each issue as to the probable vote of the Justice in question should he or she decide to reach that issue. If I am right, for instance, that the SCOTUS majority will vote against standing in the prop 8 case, then most probably the justices in the majority will not indicate how they would come out on the merits.
And the rest of the cases:
So far this term, FantasySCOTUS is around 73% accuracy (our average over the last few years). This number should shake up as we get closer to the last day of the term.