FantasySCOTUS.net Predictions of the 10th Justice: Predicting Justices in the Majority and Probable Coalitions

January 15th, 2010

Welcome to the sixth installment of Predictions of the 10th Justice, brought to you by FantasySCOTUS.net. The league has over 3,400 members, who have made predictions on all cases currently pending before the Supreme Court.

By conducting a rigorous statistical analysis of 26 of the most hotly contested cases this terms, we have developed a descriptive model to elucidate how frequently a Justice will vote in the majority, and how this impacts the building of majority coalitions on the Court. Additionally, these statistics paint a picture of how Justice Sotomayor, the newest addition to the Court, will vote, and which coalitions she will join. Finally, this analysis aims to answer the elusive question, of how often Justice Kennedy will be in the majority.

We first calculated the percentage of predictions placing each Justice in the majority. While this method overlooks whether the Court will affirm or reverse the lower court, it does serve as an indicator for which Justices are better forming coalition. Specifically, for the 26 cases we considered, we calculated four data points for each Justice.

1. Minimum- The case where the lowest percentage of predictions placed that Justice in the Majority
2. Maximum- The case where the highest percentage of predictions placed that Justice in the Majority
3. Media- The middle prediction (50% above, and 50% below) that placed the Justice in the Majority
4. Mean- The average prediction that placed the Justice in the Majority.

Predictions, of the 10th Justice, after the jump.

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