Welcome to the third installment of Predictions of the 10th Justice, brought to you by FantasySCOTUS.net. The league has over 2,000 members, who have made predictions on all cases currently pending before the Supreme Court. Recently, Justice Stephen G. Breyer was asked in an interview about FantasySCOTUS.net. His response, “I don’t think I will bet on it.”
This week, the Supreme Court issued the first four opinions of the term: Mohawk Industries v. Carpenter, Alvarez v. Smith, Union Pacific Railroad Co. v. Brotherhood of Teamsters, and Beard v. Kindler. In this feature, we will compare the forecasts for these four cases, and compare these forecasts to the way the Nine Justices voted.
In Union Pacific Railroad Co. v. Brotherhood of Teamsters, the Supreme Court affirmed the lower court unanimously. 68 Members predicted this case. 46 correctly voted for affirmance (68%), while 22 incorrectly predicted a reversal (32%). 18 Members (27%) correctly predicted that the split would be 9-0 affirm. Of the members who correctly guessed the outcome as affirm, 40% correctly predicted the split.
In Mohawk Industries v. Carpenter, the Supreme Court affirmed the lower court unanimously, with a concurrence by Justice Thomas. 176 Members predicted this case. 113 correctly predicted an affirmance (64%), while 22 incorrectly predicted a reversal (36%). 45 Members (26%) correctly predicted that the split would be 9-0 affirm. Of the members who correctly guessed the outcome as affirm, 40% correctly predicted the split.
Predictions for Beard v. Kindler and Alvarez v. Smith, a hypothesis on the scarcity of 8-1 predictions, the FantasySCOTUS.net scoreboard after the first four opinions, tips on predicting future cases, and more, after the jump.